By Mike Heffner, Founder and President of Express Employment Indy South, Express Employment Columbus and the Specialized Recruiting Group of South Central Indiana.
As we look toward 2027, I have been thinking about what the latest labor market signals could mean for employers here in Central Indiana. Through our work with local businesses, we see how closely hiring, retention, leadership, and growth are connected. We have noticed top performing organizations give workforce decisions the same attention they give sales forecasts, financial plans, and equipment investments when they prepare. National reports provide useful perspective, but the question for most business owners is more practical: what should we be preparing for in our own organizations when it comes to workforce planning?
In March, I shared my concerns in Are We Misreading This Moment in the Labor Market?. Hiring felt a little easier in some organizations, application activity had increased, and the urgency of finding people had eased. My concern was that we might interpret that breathing room as a sign that the larger workforce challenges were behind us. More applicants did not necessarily mean employers were finding the right skills, making better hires, or keeping people longer. What we are seeing now gives employers good reason to revisit that conversation with a greater sense of urgency.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, released November 3, U.S. job openings increased by 333,000 to 7.52 million. Manufacturing and professional and business services saw higher openings, and the Midwest also recorded an increase. Meanwhile, more employees voluntarily left their jobs, while the quits rate was little changed at 2.1%. One month does not establish a sustained trend, and the BLS characterized the overall movement in openings as little changed. Still, these developments deserve employers’ attention.
The October employment report, released November 6, added another signal of strength. Employers added 165,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, with gains in professional and business services, healthcare, and manufacturing. Yet some job seekers continued to face lengthy searches, and turnover remained low. Stronger hiring does not mean opportunities or competition are increasing evenly across every industry and position.
The local outlook adds perspective to that national picture. At the November 5 Aspire Economic Breakfast I attended in Johnson County, Indiana University economist Dr. Phil Powell shared findings that illustrate how local conditions can differ from national trends. Johnson County employment grew 3% from the first quarter of 2025 through the first quarter of 2026, while wages increased 4% during the past year. Both exceeded Indiana averages, and county unemployment was 3.2%, compared with 3.7% statewide. Powell also forecast county economic growth of 3% to 3.5% in 2027. While those figures are specific to Johnson County, they reinforce the importance of understanding the conditions in the communities where your business operates and competes for people.
The broader forecast brings that conversation to employers throughout Central Indiana. IU’s Futurecast outlook projects Indiana employment growing 0.5% in 2027 while the labor force expands only 0.2%. Together, the national reports and local findings strengthen the concern I raised in March: a quieter hiring market does not mean the underlying workforce pressures have disappeared. The pace of growth will vary by county and industry, but businesses pursuing growth could face greater competition for people as workforce supply expands more slowly. In our work with employers across South Central Indiana, competition for certain skills and positions already reminds me of 2018 and 2019. These forecasts give employers another reason to prepare for the opportunities and hiring needs ahead.
In June, I expanded on this in We Are Having a Workforce Moment. Employers need to consider recruiting alongside retention, development, leadership, clarity, and productivity. A company can work hard to attract people and still struggle if expectations are unclear, onboarding is inconsistent, or supervisors have not been equipped to lead. It can also overlook capable people already on the team who could grow into the skills the business needs.
For employers, a good place to start is understanding what keeps their people engaged and where they may be looking for something more. Are they finding satisfaction in their work? Do they see a future with the company? Are they getting the support they need from their supervisor? We may not be able to meet every request, but we can listen, be upfront about what is possible, and follow through on the commitments we make.
The same thoughtfulness needs to carry into hiring. Before opening a position, leaders should define success, identify which skills are essential from the beginning, and decide what they could reasonably teach. Someone with the right foundation may become an excellent employee with a clear development plan. Someone already employed elsewhere may consider a move but need more than a job posting to understand the opportunity. Building those relationships takes time, which is why recruiting needs attention before a vacancy becomes urgent.
In October, I returned to the human side of these changes in Keeping Work Human. AI can reduce administrative work, improve processes, and give people more time to use their skills and judgment. Leaders still need to identify where training, support, or additional talent is needed while building the trust and relationships that help teams succeed.
As businesses grow, they may be hiring for new positions while also replacing experience they are losing. A company adding a production line may also need a maintenance technician. Another may be pursuing new customers while its accounting team is already stretched. A supervisor’s departure can leave an entire team without the person who provided direction and helped newer employees succeed. Workforce planning becomes closely connected to whether a business can deliver on its growth plans.
I remain optimistic about the opportunities ahead for businesses that prepare. As your team finalizes budgets and projections for 2027, make sure workforce planning is part of the decisions behind those numbers. Talk with your leadership team about where the right person would make the biggest difference over the next six months, where you depend heavily on one person’s experience, and who is ready to develop. Those conversations can reveal risks and opportunities that will never show up in an applicant count and help you determine whether your team is prepared to deliver on the plans you have made.
If you are a business owner or leader in South Central Indiana and would like to talk through what this could mean for your organization, I would welcome the conversation. Through our Express Employment Professionals office in Greenwood, our Columbus office, and our Specialized Recruiting Group team, we serve employers throughout Indianapolis, Greenwood, Whiteland, Franklin, Shelbyville, Columbus, Seymour, and North Vernon. Whether you are planning for growth, working through a difficult hiring need, or strengthening your current team, reach out to me. I would enjoy learning more about your business and exploring how we might help you prepare for what comes next.